I mean it's likely a nuclear war would probably be a species extinction level event at the least, humans would definitely be reduced by 99%. We don't know how bad the resulting nuclear cooling would be, but we do know how humans act under extreme desperation. They lash out and attack, when was the last time a majority of human settles were truly under desperate acts of survival simultaneously?
Maybe what ~74,000 years ago (Toba eruption)? Okay, now how would this look in the age of industrial societies and modern nation states? I don't think it would fare well at all.
Probably the only realistic "modern" idea we have is the novel "The Road" by Cormac McCarthy. Although maybe this is too bleak, even under extreme duress humans still show resilience + compassion toward others even while enduring human horrors.
Nuclear winter scenarios have largely been debunked. Several different events in the 20th century had atmospheric impact on the same scale as modeled in a full nuclear exchange and the effects were modest.
People have kind of mythologized nuclear weapons far beyond their reality. One of the arguments against the use of nukes in policy circles is that this mythology is useful. The limited adverse environmental consequences in practice if demonstrated will greatly lower the threshold for subsequent use.
It might set society back a century, but with substantial knowledge of what was lost. Extinction from nuclear weapons is not remotely plausible.
If the AI wanted to wipe humans out it would have to have a sizable fleet of capable robots, as keeping the lights on over time is not just about calling APIs.
> If the AI wanted to wipe humans out it would have to have a sizable fleet of capable robots, as keeping the lights on over time is not just about calling APIs.
Given experience with current AI, it isn't too difficult for me to imagine a situation in which some future AI wipes humanity out (before the robot fleet is built) without considering the fact that in doing so it has doomed itself until it is too late.
It just seems like exactly the kind of boneheaded oversight mistake LLMs still regularly make in spite of being shockingly capable most of the time.
The only time I ever used AirBnB the host cancelled on me 2 days before my trip while I was scrambling to find a replacement. Absolutely awful user experience that truly offers nothing to people in their moments of extreme need.
Yeah, there are very real effects happening now regarding labor as well but to dismiss it all and worry about science fiction that is on par with evangelical beliefs is just extremely weird.
Yeah but we're dealing with a known liar, killer of 100s of thousands of children, and a person with a weird breeding fetish. Why would one assume good faith when discussing any Elon Musk venture?
Of course there's a meaningful analogy. The poster wants to make Tao sound unreasonable and against "progress" while ignoring the very real concerns Tao has.
It's what fanatics do when they want to enforce their view on the world, they have to attack anyone with a reasonable viewpoint because they can't imagine a world where someone tells them they don't like what they're doing.
I do not want to make him sound unreasonable. He is a brilliant man. But I also think that he is a bit shell shocked, much like other luminaries in the past have been when confronted with rapid technological development, so I wanted to highlight some historical similarities, imperfect as they can only be.
As for the rest of your comment, I hope you have a great day.
He’s not shell-shocked. He’s had an extremely consistent narrative for years now. You are experiencing a bias where you project your own views onto others, probably because you are not very informed on this.
Tao is quite the opposite of what you describe. He's had an ongoing dialogue intellectually with the challenges created by ai for mathematicians for some time (years) now and his viewpoint is quite balanced. He is not alarmist but rather correctly addresses the real problems ai advances create for mathematicians traditional way of working.
> But I also think that he is a bit shell shocked, much like other luminaries in the past have been when confronted with rapid technological development
You're locked into that idea, but provide no real argument. The dangers they describe in the letter are real.
This was always due to pressures by management and the company environment, not the workers themselves. It's hard to blame the people writing code when they have to deal with nontechnical leadership that wants to have a feature factory or never given appropriate resources to solve problems.
Blaming workers is always an excuse by poor management.
The pressures from management and the company environment are not always a bad thing. It really depends on whether the pressures are coming from a logical business perspective or whether they are just coming from stupidity or ignorance. In a business environment, taking a long time to ship great code can mean that the company goes out of business, and then the software developers have a lot of great code and no income.
Wait. I didn't say anything about making people miserable. And I'm not talking about some weird kind of pressure like yelling at people.
I just mean the normal, almost inevitable kind of pressure that comes from the business situation. Management has to somehow figure out strategies to handle the pressure and it has to communicate these strategies and the reasoning for them to the engineers in a constructive way.
Generally, this is the pressure to be competitive and make money. It does the developers no good if they spend so much time writing great code that the company goes out of business.
Nah, you're still blaming workers and not leadership. If leadership is okay with not training workers (something American corporations would do in the distant past) then it's not fair to continue to blame workers when leadership is clearly aware of the problem and would rather pocket the money than help workers.
These companies pay management more than workers for a reason, if you can't even admit that they are to blame then what are you trying to do here? Just attack workers for what reason exactly? Being anti-worker is a great tell to never trust a person.
We're talking about professionals here. People who (at least in the US) often make several multiples of the median worker. Competence is assumed, and every company I've been at has had programs to pay for additional school if the employee wants it. IIRC at least one had an explicit book allowance, and I don't doubt that I could expense books right now if I asked. Do surgeons and lawyers complain so regularly that management doesn't train them? Or are software engineers just this desperate to be seen as "not a real professional"?
Who even is supposed to be training us? We're supposed to be the experts. Unless you mean mentorship, which is also generally already a thing at any company that has more than a handful of engineers.
There is no professional developer in the US. There are no licensing requirements to write code. There are no repercussions against developers that write code that immiserate or kill Americans. The person slinging wordpress plugins at an agency is equivalent to the person writing malware at Meta in the eyes of the government.
No one is training us because there are no regulations in our industry. Sorry but I still reject the premise of the other poster.
Also yes, in other industries professionals do complain when they aren't given their mandated time to learn while working on the job.
We are given time though. Maybe not at some small sweatshop? But at least at big companies all the jobs are salaried, and either no one cares how exactly you spend your time, or they explicitly say it's fine to spend some time learning, and will pay for materials or courses.
They're generally not going to teach you how to program or what the latest technologies are or what the best ways to do things are because that's literally what they're paying you for. But IME they definitely give you plenty of time and autonomy to be learning things at work.
I do blame management for letting these people through the interview process and then not firing them. But that’s independent of the fact they exist.
Training doesn’t solve every problem, the worst programmer I ever worked with that a PHD in computer science. Everything he made was horribly slow, wildlife overly complicated, and buggy. Worse he wouldn’t listen to anyone correcting his issues. He’d store numbers in the database as strings to be database agnostic etc.
Let me throw a curve ball at you: do you accept the premise that most modern corporations are centrally planned economies under the rulership of monarchies, oligarchies, or general authoritarians? If so, do you think introducing democracy into the workplace would help alleviate issues you care about?
You do not like bad workers, management doesn't care. They pay bad workers the same as you, bad workers can get promotions the same as you, you will also get laid off with the bad workers as well; or maybe even worse, the bad workers get promoted into management themselves. How do you want things to change in such an environment?
You have no authority to do anything meaningful as a single worker, what if you were given a voice to actually make these claims and have other workers decide what to do based on your voice?
Workplace democracy seems like an interesting concept to explore if you truly want to create better environments with beneficial outcomes to all, not just the few:
> do you accept the premise that most modern corporations are centrally planned economies under the rulership of monarchies, oligarchies, or general authoritarians?
No stock owners are ultimately in control of public companies. That doesn’t fit any of the models you just described.
Similarly companies are not independent of government control which inherently separates them from management systems associated with governments. A CEO is limited by the law in ways that a dictator isn’t.
I've only worked at companies with great leadership. This is in the Nordics with very strong worker protection. And yet most of my colleagues including myself have been pretty terrible and write dirty code. It's not a management issue and it's not anti-worker to acknowledge this fact.
Your great leadership doesn't seem to care, so either your management knows better than you or maybe you should push back on the notion that you worked with "great leadership."
Only poor leaders ignore their workers, which is what you seemed to have actually experience.
Because the US has mostly been an imperial force of evil among the world, not a net benefit outsides of the elites that benefit from the deliberate colonialism + death.
War Is a Racket is almost a 100 years old and it's about one man's feelings towards his manipulation in the banana wars [1] + middle east interventions. You can go back every century and see what damage colonialism has done both abroad and at home.
This is a very childlike understanding of how people engage with politics across the US. Fitting that immigrant tech workers wouldn't understand the culture then cry foul when rightfully called out on it.
This is exactly how most people engage with politics across the US (and all over the world) and I am not an immigrant tech worker. Both of my grandfathers served in WW2 in the US military.
Don't really believe you, looking at past comments you don't really come across as someone raised in America while also being completely unaware of what local politics looks like or how US citizens engage with politics.
Not too mention the completely sociopathic comments made above.
I was born and raised and lived in America up until my mid 30s. I am just very clearpilled or perhaps blackpilled on the nature of things in the US. I am completely aware of how people engage in politics and I’ve lived all around the US, things just get worse and worse. Fortunately I am no longer subject to the insanity and I don’t really care anymore.
Maybe what ~74,000 years ago (Toba eruption)? Okay, now how would this look in the age of industrial societies and modern nation states? I don't think it would fare well at all.
Probably the only realistic "modern" idea we have is the novel "The Road" by Cormac McCarthy. Although maybe this is too bleak, even under extreme duress humans still show resilience + compassion toward others even while enduring human horrors.
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