I can't read the article either, but my understanding of the various factors is this:
* Houthis have taken control of all of the Yemeni coastline along the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (and an island in the middle of it), which gives them the ability to effectively interdict trade through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, just as Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
* Not that it matters that much, because the Saudi pipeline that lets it export crude via Yanbu, in the Red Sea, has been disabled, and current estimates suggest that the recovery time is in weeks-to-months. That's about 4-5mbpd of crude oil that's down for the near feature, or about 4% of global crude oil production.
* Now that the summer driving season is over, US refineries are starting to switch from summer blends to winter blends, and this is one of the periods that refineries go down for maintenance. So US refinery capacity is down.
* The supply shock has been mitigated for the past several months by drawing down reserves (note that reserves were relatively high when the war started). This includes both national strategic petroleum reserves, but also corporate reserves (e.g., tanks on-site at refineries). It seems some of these reserves are starting to hit effective 0.
* On top of this, Trump is making it more and more clear that he has no intention of actually doing anything to end to the crisis. For example, he's effectively said that he's not going to do anything before the midterm elections, two months away. Which means the market optimism that the war is going to be over, like, tomorrow is fading.
at least where i work the onus of "who creates the design doc" ends up on the developer.. who also builds the thing.. and thats just like a 2.5x translation tax on the developer who's realistically putting it together to appease business heads who want to feel involved.
i can think of... zero times where a business-coded person even a technical PM (which is a role i do appreciate btw) has ever come up with an official design doc or specification that didnt suck. creating a good design doc is either going to require an architect/staff or senior engineer to sit down and just do it. the overworked architect or staff engineer inevitably gets dragged in if the developers hands are full, or they just beat the shit out of the developer and fill their calendar up with meetings and make them do it... then they beat the shit out of them again and make them build it.. then they beat the shit out of them repeatedly doing fast follows for months and say "no not like that"
i think everyone wants to take some pride in the org they work at and maybe they feel like they've got the formula for sucess, but i personally haven't seen it. there's always going to be an additional translation tax required of the developer(s) who is/are also building the damn thing at the end of it. cover it in poorly run agile/jira shenanigans and this just slows down the possibility of getting to a super stable state back soooo far.
i actually agree with the guy a couple posts up: do some loose design work, friggen dropkick/prototype and see where it lands and go from there. i like facepalm when i hear that our project guys were planning a project for a year and when it was finally time to move on it every specification they planned out missed all the details. this is totally so much worse now with AI writing everything everyone is putting together.
bout 5 months ago i gave it 2 hours of my life and asked for a refund once i realized i had basically seen the whole game in that first like 30 minutes of playing.
the only game that seems to hit the mark of what im actually itching for is star citizen that is in a perpetual state of never-finished but i can't even quite put a finger on what it is i'm after. beauty, art, real weather, being able to fly up through the atmosphere and just let me escape into a sci fi movie. i can acknowledge star citizen has actually come a long ways and i think they do deliver that, though i haven't played it myself just going off vids ive seen.
NMS somehow feels like a visual and playable interpretation of depression to me with a Dr. Seuss world backdrop lol. Like it reminds me of times in my life where I've just been stuck in the motions, unhappy, resigning myself to the fate of doing absolutely nothing of inspiration because I felt like I had no other options and gave up.
Shout outs to steam for refunding when my reason was "This game is actually depressing"
lol i have upgraded multiple times and i always end up back on the iphone mini. it's cost me a lot of money to find out how much i truly value small phones. my phone use is so balanced compared to some of the people i sit around who are just glued to their damn phones all the damn time. i love the utility that i can literally do whatever i need on the iphone mini, but i don't feel drawn to pick it up and just scroll much. i think the size helps reinforce that a lot, and i mostly feel like i have such a healthier relationship with screen time than my coworkers, family and friends.
if there was ever an iphone that was the size of the iphone 5 it would literally be over for me id pay 2000 dollars for it i dont care. there's literally no other options for small phones that don't suck right now i have looked exhaustively. the 13 mini is still the small phone king it's the best damn phone in the milky way.
as it turns out short form stream of conscious rambling was sometimes funny sometimes interesting even sometimes pivotal as a communications tool in countries experiencing civil unrest / injustice. but in its current stage and the state of all social media at this point one wonders why anyone pretends twitter is what it was a decade ago. it just isn't, it could also disappear tomorrow and things probably might even get a little better for the world given how much of a vehicle it is to amplify division.
i remember like i dunno 5-6 years ago when the people in my life started to wean themselves off twitter and i smoked a lot of cope to justify why i was still on it. can't even remember when i stopped using it but again... nothing of value was lost. feels like a fever dream i always thought i had to be tuned the hell in theres just no way that's good for anyone's brain.
instagram/facebook over my 20s left some real mental scars though im still trying to sort what the f those apps did to me and to culture at large. i quit instagram like 3 years ago, the classic millenial exploration of pruning your life of shite things to lower the anxiety. the scars i am still stuck with, and mind you i literally don't have these apps anymore:
- i still feel this soft pressure that anything i do doesn't matter unless there is a witness (a post, a story, etc). that is insane. it's been three years and i can still feel that what the hell? there's just no way the guy from 100 years ago who trainhopped around the country ever experienced that kind of pressure. it literally messed my brain up and i have no idea how to fix it for me at least the feeling hasn't gone away
- when you're on the other side it feels like you're just sitting outside of the rest of the worlds culture at this point. it can actually challenge why you left it in the first place and make you consider sacrificing your own well being just to not feel like you're not an outsider from another planet
i never did the tiktok thing so i dunno what that's like. at least leaving twitter felt like shutting a book that kinda sucked and you don't really ever think about it again
Twitter in its design has never been a platform for discussion, but for shouting into the void. And that seems to have empowered people to voice their most awful opinions because they don't see much pushback
Short messages bias toward simple slogans and memes devoid of context or nuance. It leads to “context collapse” in the discourse and the worst kind of echo chamber effects. You can’t ask for a better medium to spread rumor and disinformation.
Then, to supercharge its badness, it sorts by “engagement” which promotes the dumbest or most triggering stuff.
Think of the last point this way: two people walk past you. One says “hi.” The other strips and smears themselves with peanut butter and starts clucking like a chicken and saluting Hitler. Which of these two people maximizes engagement?
The peanut butter smeared clucking Nazi is now President. The opinions that dominate discourse everywhere are now the opinions of those types of people.
Social media is collective brain poison. Bluesky and Mastodon might be slightly less bad on the “maximizing engagement” part but they still cause the context collapse and echo chamber effects. The “microblogging” format is inherently toxic and irredeemable.
> even sometimes pivotal as a communications tool in countries experiencing civil unrest / injustice
I get why you or anyone would say that. But I assure you, it is less accountable and more disinformation than anything remotely positive or helpful. Source? Arab Spring.
Twitter, and other similar designs are parasocial mass media.
i think they took a bet that TED talk style chat would make their AI offering feel like the better offering.
they didn't anticipate that it would become a meme. because of course they didn't, what a stupid idea to train around and reward in the training. you gotta be smoking real delusion to think that was going to be a game changing feature. at work we even got non-technical people making fun of it like crazy now.
going back to opus 4.8 and on is literally like talking to the guy who wants to hear his own voice in meetings. going back to 4.6 is actually refreshing, and it feels so much faster. actually gonna laugh if 4.8 and on is so slow because it's draining lakes fighting for its life trying to conjure up this god forsaken persona.
without having looked into the tesla roof tiles like at all (so stop reading here if you want any sort of informed discussion), are these things like placed individually and wired together individually? does every tile get a microinverter or is it like a net of tiles belong to one? is this potentially hundreds of connectors acrossed your roof that would be so many points of failure. if so that seems nuts and hardly worth the absurd cost just for aesthetics. feel like anyone who can afford this could just have whatever roof they want and then have their solar array farm nearby on their presumably many acres of land.
in the marine/rv world there are like walkable solar panels that you can literally just like walk on now, theres solar awnings, i dunno. just in my limited experience i'd be surprised if they dont have the christmas light problem (one goes out many go out) and solar arrays just seem to do awesome in panel configurations and i think in the consumer world theyre reaching 25% conversion, no idea what tesla is marketing but those guys are dorks with marketing anyways
i think anyone who's done even a modicum of research knows that holding a conversation isnt going to come from an app or a library and actually being out there having convos with either a tutor or just all out immersion is required. then reading literature, consuming media in the other language yes your point is made duolingo isnt going to do these things for you. those initial stages of learning another language even the enshittified duolingo can help get a basic framework going. is it the best resource no absolutely not but it certainly can let people get their feet wet and even doing that is an "actual success" especially if it's something they otherwise wouldn't do.
Getting feet wet is not a success though because it doesn't achieve anything. It is the beginning of maybe succeeding at something. The following sentence would be silly: "I used an app to learn programming, by writing hello world, and had actual success with it."
It literally is maybe not by your metric but someone elses metric that can absolutely be a success. Sometimes getting up in the morning is a success for people I've been there I know what that's like. I'm kind of amused at the gatekeeping of what a 'success' is here. Guy said he has literally learned things that have stuck with him sounds like something he marks as a success to me, not like he was taking the course for college credit and had to demonstrate fluency lol
edit: yea the guy is now consuming media in a foreign language and has had small convos based on what he learned on duolingo. idk man smells like success
Why are you arguing against what you just said and against the comment I made before OP responded?
"anyone who's done even a modicum of research knows that holding a conversation... reading literature, consuming media...duolingo isnt going to do these things for you."
Your edit makes it sound like not only did I argue that what he did is not success, but that thinking so was dumb, while we both thought the same thing five minutes ago. In fact I argued that beginning a task does not constitute success in that task.
If OP is not exaggerating his success that is highly impressive and hard to believe, so good for him. That had nothing to do with anything else I said though.
Except that getting feet wet here means "making you capable to progress by reading literature and watch movies".
That is more then just writing hello word. That is equivalent of "taught me basic programming, so I was able to write my first javascript game and continue learning by doing own projects". That definitely has large value for someone at 0.
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