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Given the choice between believing stock analysts and stock prices, I err on the side of believing the price.

The price is set by people betting their money based on all available information INCLUDING stock analyst opinions. Any stock analyst's opinions are ALREADY factored in the price. Unless you have a reason to believe either that the market is irrational or that you have a more informed opinion, there is no more reliable prediction that you can make of future stock prices than current ones.

And remember, there are many, many, many billions of dollars looking for any market irrationality or lack of information so that investors can profit off of mistakes in current stock prices.



The market may not be irrational, but I think that's only because the concept of rationality doesn't apply to markets.




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