> PG, what probability would you assign to the propositions "This time things are different" (empirically: the jobs won't come back 5 years from now) vs. "This time things are not different" (empirically: the jobs will come back 5 years from now)? Warning, if your probabilities are extreme enough, someone might want to bet you on it.
What odds would you bet on?
I'll lay you 10:1 that world GDP continues to trend up barring WWIII or other force majeure type event.
Some nations will net lose though. The American currency trades at roughly +25% worldwide due to stability/prestige, and the recent administrations are really doing all they can to undermine both of those. So, American could net lose jobs and net lose GDP (implausible, but possible). But worldwide? Massive increases.
So anyways, what odds on what proposition are you looking for, and what timeline? We're both semi-public figures, I reckon we'd both be good for the money :)
(Rest of the comment is insightful and huge fan of your work, rationality, HPMOR, etc, etc, etc. But I'll lay favorable odds on "this time is not different")
Edit: To clarify, I'm disputing this from the article as I think PG is: "Our new economy is shrinking because technology leads to efficiency over growth." I don't think it is. World GDP continues to massively increase. I also think if America would get out of making financial fuckery the top government and private priority and get back into the entrepreneurship/production/hardwork then the USA will continue to do quite well, too.
Historically, since WWII each rapid spike of oil prices over 2006 100$/barrel for a few months is followed with a recession one year later. If the trend stays true, 2012 will be a recession year.
World GDP in a country with fast-growing economies and slow-growing economies, is not that useful a measure.
As an example, Brazil, China, India have actually been growing at rates that would be miraculous in the US, because they have labor-intensive industry and increasing oil supplies.
Old countries like the US, UK, France have barely moved the needle, and are scraping by through money-printing to finance massive deficits.
It's hard not to see bringing up GDP as anything other than an attempt to derail the discussion. The author was talking about employment. Implying that the claim was that GDP would go down (which is much less likely), and defeating that claim would have no logical bearing on whether employment will recover.
But it might confuse people into thinking it will.
What odds would you bet on?
I'll lay you 10:1 that world GDP continues to trend up barring WWIII or other force majeure type event.
Some nations will net lose though. The American currency trades at roughly +25% worldwide due to stability/prestige, and the recent administrations are really doing all they can to undermine both of those. So, American could net lose jobs and net lose GDP (implausible, but possible). But worldwide? Massive increases.
So anyways, what odds on what proposition are you looking for, and what timeline? We're both semi-public figures, I reckon we'd both be good for the money :)
(Rest of the comment is insightful and huge fan of your work, rationality, HPMOR, etc, etc, etc. But I'll lay favorable odds on "this time is not different")
Edit: To clarify, I'm disputing this from the article as I think PG is: "Our new economy is shrinking because technology leads to efficiency over growth." I don't think it is. World GDP continues to massively increase. I also think if America would get out of making financial fuckery the top government and private priority and get back into the entrepreneurship/production/hardwork then the USA will continue to do quite well, too.