I would normally be tempted to think the S&P500 should look linear or similar-ish to last year, and so on. But I think there's a valid thesis where rapid technological advancement does indeed just grow the pie exponentially: where the amount of value that becomes unlocked in a non-zero-sum manner grows tremendously.
Just with current AI models, the amount of value that is waiting to be created (take technology X, add AI to it) is incredible. Casual things that used to take years for a team to build, can now be solved by throwing a GPU at it with a generic model that is fine-tuned a bit. Basically, things that were unpractical 2y ago are now on the table.
The bear thesis is that compute will stop being scarce. Which is plausible, since in capitalism, the best cure for high prices tends to be high prices.
Something crazy to think about is that Accelerando by Charles Stross is starting to look like a prophecy being slowly fulfilled.
Just with current AI models, the amount of value that is waiting to be created (take technology X, add AI to it) is incredible. Casual things that used to take years for a team to build, can now be solved by throwing a GPU at it with a generic model that is fine-tuned a bit. Basically, things that were unpractical 2y ago are now on the table.
The bear thesis is that compute will stop being scarce. Which is plausible, since in capitalism, the best cure for high prices tends to be high prices.
Something crazy to think about is that Accelerando by Charles Stross is starting to look like a prophecy being slowly fulfilled.