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> Facebook is available in china, but I don't see them gaining "100% of the user market".

Facebook is Public Enemy #1a (Twitter is 1b) to the Chinese government. It's only available via a VPN, and VPN is an expensive proposition to most Chinese - having one means effectively doubling your internet bill. Most Chinese know Facebook, just like they know Twitter and YouTube. They just aren't willing to jump through the hoops required to use them over renren, weibo, or youku.

A much better example of your point (sticking with China) would be tencent (QQ) - they cloned ICQ and are now a massive company WITHOUT protection from the government.



I can see FB [eventually] negotiating its way into China and succeeding as the dominant social network, Twitter on the other hand, I think Sina Weibo has won that space, imo.


For that, Facebook will have to give in to a surveillance backdoor and respond to realtime censorship demands. I just can't see them going there.




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