No LLM has ever been as good as people said it was. That doesn't mean this one won't be, but it does make it an unlikely bet based on past trends.

With the exception of GPT-5, which was a significant advance yet because it was slightly less sycophantic than gpt-4o the internet decided it was terrible for the first few days.

"No LLM has ever been as good as people said it was."

The reason for this is because LLM companies have tuned their models to aggressively blow smoke up their users' asses.

These "tools" are designed to aggressively exploit human confirmation bias, so as to prevent the user from identifying their innumerable inadequacies.

2.5 flash and 2.5 Pro were just sitting back and watching?

The problem with Google is that someone had to show them how to make a product out of the thing, which Open AI did.

Then Anthropic taught them to make a more specific product out of there models

In every aspect, they're just playing catch up, and playing me too.

Models are only part of the solution

Google didn't sit back and watch, they basically built the whole foundations for all of this. They were just not the first ones to release a chatbot interface.

Astroturfing used as evidence of domination. Public forums truly have come full circle.

Why?

Not trying to challenge you, and I'd sincerely love to read your response. People said similar things about previous gen-AI tool announcements that proved over time to be overstated. Is there some reason to put more weight in "what people on HN said" in this case, compared to previous situations?

Only reasonable thing is to not listening to anyone who seem to be hyping anything, LLMs or otherwise. Wait until the thing gets released, run your private benchmarks against it, get a concrete number, compare against existing runs you've done before.

I don't see any other way of doing this. The people who keep reading and following comments either here on HN, from LocalLlama or otherwise will continue to be misinformed by all the FUD and guerilla marketing that is happening across all of these places.